The Impact of Near-Wellbore Metrics on Early-Time Production
A Permian operator analyzed 85 recently completed wells across multiple benches in the Midland Basin to quantify how near-wellbore stimulation quality affects early-time oil production. By using high-resolution, high-frequency surface-pressure measurements during hydraulic fracturing operations, operators were able to calculate perforation efficiency and stage-level uniformity at scale. Two adjacent wells targeting the same rock (Wolfcamp D in Howard County) with identical completion designs exhibited vastly different outcomes; Well 2 achieved a 69% perforation efficiency and a 0.81 Uniformity Index (UI), while Well 1 only managed 53% perforation efficiency and a 0.69 UI. This initial comparison underscored that near-wellbore behavior is a key driver of production.
To determine if perforation efficiency is statistically significant to production on a broader scale, a regression analysis was performed on the 85-well dataset. The study carefully controlled for geographic and geological variability by categorizing wells into three distinct area groupings across Martin, Midland, and Ector counties, and grouping formations into two primary categories: Jo Mill/Lower Spraberry (JM/LS) and Wolfcamp A/Upper Wolfcamp B (WCA/WB). The model incorporated end-of-stage post-sand perforation efficiency ranging from 36% to 100% at the stage level (averaging 52% to 82% at the well level).
The statistical analysis concluded that perforation efficiency remains a significant predictor of production even after accounting for area and formation variability. Crucially, the impact of perforation efficiency becomes stronger and more statistically significant over longer production horizons. Regression p-values decreased from 0.27 at 3 months to 0.10 at 6 months, ultimately reaching 0.03 at 9 months, indicating strong statistical confidence. Consequently, the model predicts that a 10% improvement in perforation efficiency yields approximately 16,340 barrels of additional oil over 9 months (or +1.6 bbls/ft) for a standard 10,000-ft lateral well.
